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  1. Browse decks
  2. Pattern Recognition (COMP 5013)
  3. Model Accuracy and the Bias-Variance Trade-Off
Public deck

Pattern Recognition (COMP 5013)

COMP 5013 at Lakehead, built from the course textbook (An Introduction to Statistical Learning with Python): regression, classification, resampling, regularization, splines and GAMs, trees, SVMs, neural networks, PCA and clustering, plus the Python used in the labs and the mixture and ICA material from the course outline.

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Model Accuracy and the Bias-Variance Trade-Off

ISLP section 2.2: measuring fit with MSE and error rate, training versus test error, overfitting, the bias-variance decomposition, the Bayes classifier and the K-nearest neighbors classifier.

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Content

43 total questions

MCQ: 12
Fill-in: 9
Flashcards: 13
Pair match: 9
Model Accuracy and the Bias-Variance Trade-Off – Flashcards
Flashcards

Card #1

Formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of a regression fit on n observations

Card #2

How does ISLP define overfitting precisely, in terms of test MSE?

Card #3

Degrees of freedom (of a fitted curve)

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Model Accuracy and the Bias-Variance Trade-Off – MCQ
Multiple Choice Questions
  1. 1. Three models are fitted to the same data. Training MSEs: A 4.1, B 2.3, C 0.9. Test MSEs on a large held-out set: A 5.0, B 3.1, C 6.2. Which model should you choose?

    • C, because the lowest training MSE shows it has captured the true f most closely
    • A, because its training and test MSEs are the closest to each other of the three
    • B, because it has the lowest test MSE, and a low training MSE does not carry over
    • Any of them, because training MSE and test MSE always rank models in the same order
  2. 2. The true f is very close to linear. As you increase the flexibility of a smoothing spline, what does ISLP expect to happen to the test MSE?

    • It falls only slightly before rising, so least squares beats a highly flexible fit
    • It falls steeply and keeps falling, so the most flexible fit gives the lowest test MSE
    • It stays flat at every flexibility level, because linear data contains no noise at all
    • It rises right from the start, so even least squares is too flexible for this data set
  3. 3. At a test point x0, a method has Var(f(x0)) = 0.5 and Bias(f(x0)) = 0.6, and Var(ε) = 1.0. What is the expected test MSE at x0?

    • 2.10
    • 1.36
    • 0.86
    • 1.86
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Model Accuracy and the Bias-Variance Trade-Off – Fill-in-the-blank
Fill in the Blank
  1. 1. In ISLP Figure 2.9, linear regression sits at the most restrictive end of the flexibility axis, with ___ degrees of freedom.

    Answer:2also: two

    Hint: Intercept and slope

  2. 2. As the flexibility of a method increases, the training MSE declines ___, while the test MSE traces a U-shape.

    Answer:monotonicallyalso: monotonely, steadily

    Hint: It never goes back up

  3. 3. Whether or not overfitting has happened, we almost always expect the training MSE to be ___ than the test MSE, because most methods try to minimise the training MSE.

    Answer:smalleralso: lower, less

    Hint: Comparative of small

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Model Accuracy and the Bias-Variance Trade-Off – Pair match
Pair Match
x0↔Predictor values of an unseen test observation
y0↔True response of that unseen test observation
yi↔Predicted class label for training observation i
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